Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives February 2022
Highlights
Monitored:
During January, the central and southern islands received above normal rainfall while the Northern islands received less. Over the last 365 days, rainfall exceeded climatology by 10% in the Northern islands; by 8% in the Southern islands and was in deficit by 28% in the Central islands.
Predictions:
In the months ahead, a weak La Niña trend is expected. Seasonal climate predictions indicate a wetter tendency in the Northern and Central islands and a drought tendency in the Southern Islands for March to May.
Summary
CLIMATOLOGY
Monthly Climatology:
In March, northern and central islands receive average rainfall up to 50 mm while southern islands receive up 100 mm of rain. Wind is northeasterly. Usually in April, Southern islands usually receive about 150 mm of rainfall. The wind direction in southern and central islands is westerly and in northern islands, it is northwesterly. Rainfall usually increase up to 200 mm in May in the entire country. The wind direction remains the same but the speed increases.
MONITORING
Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: In January, the central and southern islands received up to 5 mm above average rainfall while remaining islands received less. The cumulative rainfall during the last 365 days,
shows for: Northern islands: Excess of 150 mm from an average of 1450 mm average
Central islands: Deficit of 475 mm from an average of 1675 mm average
Southern islands: Excess of 150 mm from an average of 1775 mm average
Deckadal Rainfall Estimates:
1-10 February, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 20 mm rainfall
Central Islands: 10 mm rainfall
Southern Islands: 5 mm rainfall
11-20 February, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 20 mm rainfall
Central Islands: 10 mm rainfall
Southern Islands: 5 mm rainfall
PREDICTIONS
Daily Rainfall Forecast: NOAA GFS model predicts up to 10 mm of rainfall in the entire islands on 23rd – 24th Feb; Up to 20 mm of rainfall in the northern islands; up to 10 mm in central and southern islands on 25th Feb; Up to 10 mm of rainfall in the entire islands on 26th Feb; Up to 20 mm of rainfall in the northern and central islands; up to 10 mm in southern islands on 27th Feb; Up to 20 mm of rainfall in the southern islands; up to 10 mm in northern and central islands on 28th Feb; and Up to 40 mm of rainfall in the central islands; up to 20 mm in northern and southern islands on 1st Mar.
Weekly Rainfall Forecast: NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of below-normal tercile by 40% in the central islands and near neutral northern and southern between 1st-7th Mar.
Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:
Above-normal precipitation tercile is 50% probable in the northern and central islands; and below-normal precipitation tercile is 40% probable in the southern islands from March-April-May 2022 and seasonal rainfall forecast is climatological.
MJO Index:
The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 3 & 4 in the next two weeks over the Maldives and it is strong in the next two weeks (21st Feb – 7th Mar 2022). MJO in phase 3 & 4 usually enhances rainfall over the Maldives.